Antonio Griffin
Walmart earnings are due before the market opens Thursday, and analysts widely expect both sales and profits to have climbed during the first quarter as persistent inflation pushed a broader group of shoppers toward value. The report could send the retailer's stock to a fresh record in the days that follow.
At a Glance
- Walmart reports first-quarter results before Thursday's opening bell.
- Options pricing implies the stock could move roughly 5% by week's end.
- Revenue is projected at $174.94 billion, up nearly 6% from a year earlier.
- Ten of 11 analysts rate the shares a "buy," with an average target above $140.
A Potential Record High for Walmart Stock
Traders are positioning for a notable swing once the numbers land. Based on the current options market, a move of about 5% is anticipated by the close of the week. If the stock rallies that much from Monday's level, shares would push past $139 and top the record set in February. A drop of similar magnitude, however, would knock the stock below $127 and erase part of its recent advance.
Walmart shares have gained roughly 20% so far this year. Investors continue to wager that the company can grab additional market share as elevated inflation squeezes the wallets of many U.S. consumers, steering them toward lower-priced options and bulk buying.
First Quarter Under New Leadership
This was the first full reporting period with John Furner at the helm. Furner stepped into the chief executive role in February, and Thursday's call gives him a chance to lay out his strategy and priorities for the company directly to investors and analysts.
What the Earnings Could Reveal About Inflation
Results from Walmart, along with reports from several other retailers this week, may shed light on how American households are coping with rising prices and climbing fuel costs while the conflict involving Iran continues. Spending patterns from a retailer of Walmart's scale often serve as a useful gauge of consumer health.
Analysts at Oppenheimer recently said they anticipate a strong first quarter but believe the company will likely keep its full-year outlook unchanged, since fuel expenses may stay high for much of the year. Morgan Stanley analysts struck a positive note as well, suggesting Walmart is well placed to benefit from value-seeking shoppers thanks to its competitive pricing, convenience, and leadership in online retail.
The Numbers Analysts Are Watching
Industry estimates point to first-quarter revenue of $174.94 billion, an increase of nearly 6% from the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share are seen at 66 cents, 5 cents higher than a year ago. Comparable store sales are forecast to have risen 3.8%, while e-commerce sales are expected to have jumped around 22% as the company keeps building out its online business.
| Metric | Estimate | Year-Over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $174.94 billion | Up ~6% |
| Adjusted EPS | 66 cents | Up 5 cents |
| Comparable store sales | 3.8% growth | — |
| E-commerce sales | ~22% growth | — |
Sentiment on Wall Street leans firmly optimistic. Of the 11 analysts with active ratings, ten rate the stock a "buy" and one holds a neutral stance. Their average price target sits just above $140, which would imply upside of roughly 5% from where shares closed Monday.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Walmart report first-quarter earnings?
Walmart is scheduled to release its results before the market opens on Thursday morning, with an investor call following the report.
How much could Walmart stock move after earnings?
Options pricing suggests a swing of about 5% by the end of the week, which could lift shares above $139 or pull them below $127.
Who is Walmart's new CEO?
John Furner became chief executive in February, making this Walmart's first earnings report under his leadership.
What are analysts expecting for revenue?
Estimates call for revenue of $174.94 billion, up nearly 6% year-over-year, alongside adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share.
Outlook
With inflation continuing to reshape how Americans shop, Walmart's report is poised to be a closely watched signal of consumer behavior and a key test for its new leadership. A strong showing could carry the stock to a fresh all-time high, while any disappointment risks reversing some of this year's substantial gains.
